1. Whatever you think you know is incomplete, and some of it is wrong!
2. You donโt know what you donโt know.
3. You donโt know how much you donโt know.
4. You donโt know what part of what you think you know is wrong.
Like everyone, I have opinions. They aren't necessarily important to this comment. But I will say that some conspiracy theories have merit, and if the argument against them is to brand them as conspiracy theories that have been debunked (by the FM 3-13.4 people), they are probably worth some consideration even though there is nothing we can do about them.
From FM 3โ13.4 Army Support to Military Deception:
โ1โ30. Any deception aims to either increase or decrease the level of uncertainty, or ambiguity, in the mind of the deception target. This ambiguity has the potential to compel the target to mistakenly perceive friendly motives, intentions, capabilities, and vulnerabilities thereby altering the targetโs assessment. Two generally recognized types of MILDEC exist:
Ambiguity-increasing. 1โ31. Ambiguity-increasing deception provides the enemy with multiple plausible friendly COAs. Ambiguity-increasing deception is designed to generate confusion and cause mental conflict in the enemy decision maker.
Ambiguity-decreasing. 1โ33. Ambiguity-decreasing deceptions manipulate and exploit an enemy decision makerโs pre-existing beliefs and bias through the intentional display of observables that reinforce and convince that decision maker that such pre-held beliefs are true. Ambiguity-decreasing deceptions cause the enemy decision maker to be especially certain and very wrong."
Thanks for this Dave, you really are a fountain of useful information! This is fascinating, and so well reflected in many of the culture war battles we're seeing today.
Factor in that even with easy sources like Wikipedia and Google to help them learn more, most people are too lazy to try.
I've been on a bunch of physics groups on social networks. They're loaded with blowhards who say things like "the Big Bang didn't happen" or "the universe is infinite" or other bull session level assertions. They respond to disagreement with hostility and mockery. The best of these groups eject anyone who mentions religion or the god of the gaps. Most of the others I end up leaving. If I post some actual facts they accuse me of copy-pasting; the idea that someone could actually have taken the trouble to learn is outside their comprehension.
Unmentioned in the lab leak belief is that the lab was working to increase the pathogenicity and communicability of COVID. For biological warfare. Hence Trump's "China virus" that got a lot of Asians killed by his mob.
Biological research is dual use which can be used for good (trying to control the harm of something like COVID) and/or biological warfare. Such things are controlled under EAR/ITAR. In this case, ECCN 1C351 & 1C352. I worked with such things (not biological) for years and when working with the Chinese I was under strict guidelines on what technical things I could share. The reason: it is a given that if they could put it to military use, they would. That is one of the reasons Congress banned it. Unfortunately, along can Anthony Fauci https://tinyurl.com/2rkj8w7k That was called a conspiracy theory, until it wasn't.
Fauci has not been prosecuted and there is the downside you mentioned. During the hysteria my Thai wife expressed concern that "someone might knock my head."
"๐๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ช๐ท๐ฆ ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ข๐ฏ ๐ข๐จ๐ฆ ๐ธ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ธ๐ฆ ๐ฉ๐ข๐ท๐ฆ ๐ข๐ค๐ค๐ฆ๐ด๐ด ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ซ๐ถ๐ด๐ต ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ถ๐จ๐ฉ ๐ช๐ฏ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ฅ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฃ๐ต ๐ฆ๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐บ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ, ๐ฃ๐ถ๐ต ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ฒ๐ถ๐ช๐ต๐ฆ ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ถ๐จ๐ฉ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ฃ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ถ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ข๐ฏ๐บ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ."
1. Whatever you think you know is incomplete, and some of it is wrong!
2. You donโt know what you donโt know.
3. You donโt know how much you donโt know.
4. You donโt know what part of what you think you know is wrong.
Like everyone, I have opinions. They aren't necessarily important to this comment. But I will say that some conspiracy theories have merit, and if the argument against them is to brand them as conspiracy theories that have been debunked (by the FM 3-13.4 people), they are probably worth some consideration even though there is nothing we can do about them.
From FM 3โ13.4 Army Support to Military Deception:
โ1โ30. Any deception aims to either increase or decrease the level of uncertainty, or ambiguity, in the mind of the deception target. This ambiguity has the potential to compel the target to mistakenly perceive friendly motives, intentions, capabilities, and vulnerabilities thereby altering the targetโs assessment. Two generally recognized types of MILDEC exist:
Ambiguity-increasing. 1โ31. Ambiguity-increasing deception provides the enemy with multiple plausible friendly COAs. Ambiguity-increasing deception is designed to generate confusion and cause mental conflict in the enemy decision maker.
Ambiguity-decreasing. 1โ33. Ambiguity-decreasing deceptions manipulate and exploit an enemy decision makerโs pre-existing beliefs and bias through the intentional display of observables that reinforce and convince that decision maker that such pre-held beliefs are true. Ambiguity-decreasing deceptions cause the enemy decision maker to be especially certain and very wrong."
Don't be too sure of your ideas.
All the edits are because I can't figure out why this keeps being cut out of the above comment:
https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/DR_a/ARN15310-FM_3-13.4-000-WEB-2.pdf
Thanks for this Dave, you really are a fountain of useful information! This is fascinating, and so well reflected in many of the culture war battles we're seeing today.
Factor in that even with easy sources like Wikipedia and Google to help them learn more, most people are too lazy to try.
I've been on a bunch of physics groups on social networks. They're loaded with blowhards who say things like "the Big Bang didn't happen" or "the universe is infinite" or other bull session level assertions. They respond to disagreement with hostility and mockery. The best of these groups eject anyone who mentions religion or the god of the gaps. Most of the others I end up leaving. If I post some actual facts they accuse me of copy-pasting; the idea that someone could actually have taken the trouble to learn is outside their comprehension.
Unmentioned in the lab leak belief is that the lab was working to increase the pathogenicity and communicability of COVID. For biological warfare. Hence Trump's "China virus" that got a lot of Asians killed by his mob.
Biological research is dual use which can be used for good (trying to control the harm of something like COVID) and/or biological warfare. Such things are controlled under EAR/ITAR. In this case, ECCN 1C351 & 1C352. I worked with such things (not biological) for years and when working with the Chinese I was under strict guidelines on what technical things I could share. The reason: it is a given that if they could put it to military use, they would. That is one of the reasons Congress banned it. Unfortunately, along can Anthony Fauci https://tinyurl.com/2rkj8w7k That was called a conspiracy theory, until it wasn't.
Fauci has not been prosecuted and there is the downside you mentioned. During the hysteria my Thai wife expressed concern that "someone might knock my head."
How fortunate that pathogens only infect people on the other side.
I didn't mean to say that whatever lab COVID supposedly escaped from was doing biowarfare research, just that this is part of the conspiracy theory.
I think the reason we are getting more and more plagues is because there are eight billion laboratories.
They may well have been doing legitimate medical research. My point was that the military arm of all governments is a strong arm that gets all data that it considers to be useful which is a reason other than it is dangerous and people screw up. Like this https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/us-military-missing-six-nuclear-weapons-180032
How unlike me, but I have a sweet tooth for this kind of candor.
Thanks.