I completely understand. I cannot give unconditional support to any side. All sides have legitimate grievances, and no sides are pure.
The population of Gaza is variously estimated between 2 and 2.5 million by different sources. It has been growing by about 2% per year, 40-50,000 people. If we take Hamas' figures as accurate, Israel has k…
I completely understand. I cannot give unconditional support to any side. All sides have legitimate grievances, and no sides are pure.
The population of Gaza is variously estimated between 2 and 2.5 million by different sources. It has been growing by about 2% per year, 40-50,000 people. If we take Hamas' figures as accurate, Israel has killed about half a year's population growth, setting the population back to what it was last summer. That is a terrible, terrible tragedy. (Tho it's far down the list of conflict deaths in recent years).
How much is at stake here? I believe that literally millions of lives, on all sides, are at stake.
I very much care about the suffering in Gaza (and the West Bank, and around the world). But I don't want to be stampeded by that into courses of actions which might result in millions of deaths down the line.
I agree about millions of lives. This could spin seriously out of control. And China/Taiwan is now leagues worse than just days ago as a result of independence-minded Lai's election (DPP) last week, and as a result of diverted attention and resources in Ukraine and now the Middle East. China was humiliated by the Taiwan election, and it is nothing if not opportunistic.
I will take a straight up bet on a Chinese economic blockade on part or all of Taiwan in 2024-2025. If Trump is elected, I'll give you odds in 2025. Trump is an isolationist at heart despite his bloviating, and I think Xi knows that.
I always appreciate your intelligent and informed commentary.
I completely understand. I cannot give unconditional support to any side. All sides have legitimate grievances, and no sides are pure.
The population of Gaza is variously estimated between 2 and 2.5 million by different sources. It has been growing by about 2% per year, 40-50,000 people. If we take Hamas' figures as accurate, Israel has killed about half a year's population growth, setting the population back to what it was last summer. That is a terrible, terrible tragedy. (Tho it's far down the list of conflict deaths in recent years).
How much is at stake here? I believe that literally millions of lives, on all sides, are at stake.
I very much care about the suffering in Gaza (and the West Bank, and around the world). But I don't want to be stampeded by that into courses of actions which might result in millions of deaths down the line.
I agree about millions of lives. This could spin seriously out of control. And China/Taiwan is now leagues worse than just days ago as a result of independence-minded Lai's election (DPP) last week, and as a result of diverted attention and resources in Ukraine and now the Middle East. China was humiliated by the Taiwan election, and it is nothing if not opportunistic.
I will take a straight up bet on a Chinese economic blockade on part or all of Taiwan in 2024-2025. If Trump is elected, I'll give you odds in 2025. Trump is an isolationist at heart despite his bloviating, and I think Xi knows that.
I always appreciate your intelligent and informed commentary.