But shouldn't it be obvious that killing over 1% of the population of Gaza will generate more Hamas recruits?
If you're looking for a solution that will prevent more attacks, there needs to be a clear path to granting Palestinians civil rights. That could be a one state solution, where Jews make up about 7 million people in a state with a…
But shouldn't it be obvious that killing over 1% of the population of Gaza will generate more Hamas recruits?
If you're looking for a solution that will prevent more attacks, there needs to be a clear path to granting Palestinians civil rights. That could be a one state solution, where Jews make up about 7 million people in a state with about 14 million people. Or it could be a two state solution. Or I suppose Israel could drive all the Palestinians out of greater Israel, which would probably require killing many tens of thousands of civilians, and some willingness of a neighbor, Egypt, Lebanon or Jordan, to cooperate and admit millions of refugees.
From my perspective, Israel is committing slow suicide. A democratic nation can not survive while oppressing a huge chunk of its population. It took the US until the late 1960s to learn that lesson, and Blacks only make up 15% of the population. Palestinians in the occupied territories make up 36% of Israel's population.
Israel will eventually learn that if something can not go on forever, it will stop.
I'm sure that Israel is 100% aware of that, having dealt closely with it for decades. It's hardly a new insight in unconventional warfare, and has probably been taught on day one of studying same for a century.
However, the Israeli analysis could be that Hamas already has as many recruits as it can equip anyway, so it's more important to destroy the military and organizational infrastructure which allows Hamas to send rockets and invasions into Israel.
They may be weighing 30,000 actual trained Hamas fighters with a fantastic tunnel system and 15 years of accumulated weaponry, supplies, etc be more dangerous than 90,000 potential recruits who may hate Israel but do not have the infrastructure and tools to attack it.
Israel knows it cannot eliminate every existing member of Hamas, but they seem to hope that they can render Hamas militarily impotent for a decade or more, which is a different proposition (whether they are correct or not in their calculations is frankly beyond my ability to discern).
In all honesty, I don't see much of a long term path for Israel. You suggest with good reason that they are committing long term suicide, but your suggested alternatives may be seen as shorter term suicide and thus no better. If they can survive long enough, perhaps something like a reform movement might break out in the Arab world, and produce new options for further survival; if they commit suicide in the shorter term, there's less to hope for.
To my best assessment (and I do not claim to be an expert, tho I read experts on all sides), neither a one state nor a two state solution will create peace and continued existence for Israel. Other countries taking Palestinians as refugees might work for Israel, but (1) the Palestinians don't want that and (2) the potential host countries have had bad experiences with Palestinians and do not want them.
In the US, Blacks make up about 13% of the population. Inside Israel proper, about 20% of the Israeli citizens are Arabic today, mostly Muslim or Christian Arabs. They vote, they elect members of parliament, and the supreme court justice who ruled against Netanyahu was Arabic.
The residents of Gaza and of the West Bank, by and large, do not want to be Israeli citizens. They might accept temporary citizenship if that was seen as a temporary step towards the elimination of Israel, which it would very possibly be.
If you think that giving everybody in Israel, Gaza and the West Bank equal citizenship would end well, I suggest moving to South Africa for a few years and then let's talk. I too cheered the idealism of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, but in the end it has not produced a society able to cooperate. There is a very poor historical track record from mixing peoples who hate each other, and having them sort it out democratically. If you doubt that, name the 3 best successes from history.
(Let me be very clear - I personally would LOVE, LOVE, LOVE a positive ending from just that one state solution with people willing to use democratic means and accept the outcome, rather than violence; that would please me no end. But that wishful thinking doesn't make it the most likely outcome.)
It appears we agree that Israel is on a long term path with a very bad ending.
I'm arguing a counterfactual: that had Israel worked with and empowered the PA in the West Bank, instead of working non-stop to humiliate it and steal land from its residents, perhaps it would have a rational negotiating partner by now.
But there's no way to know if my counterfactual was accurate. I'm just guessing when I claim/hope that there's still a way out via a two state solution if Israel works with the PA, or a reconstituted PA.
However, such a solution would require Israel to start dismantling its West Bank settlements, and I see absolutely no evidence that Israel is prepared to do that, or anything else to change the status quo today.
Still, I can't help but think that indiscriminately killing 25,000 and counting people, the vast majority of whom must certainly be civilians, is moving Israel and the Palestinians towards a far worse place.
But shouldn't it be obvious that killing over 1% of the population of Gaza will generate more Hamas recruits?
If you're looking for a solution that will prevent more attacks, there needs to be a clear path to granting Palestinians civil rights. That could be a one state solution, where Jews make up about 7 million people in a state with about 14 million people. Or it could be a two state solution. Or I suppose Israel could drive all the Palestinians out of greater Israel, which would probably require killing many tens of thousands of civilians, and some willingness of a neighbor, Egypt, Lebanon or Jordan, to cooperate and admit millions of refugees.
From my perspective, Israel is committing slow suicide. A democratic nation can not survive while oppressing a huge chunk of its population. It took the US until the late 1960s to learn that lesson, and Blacks only make up 15% of the population. Palestinians in the occupied territories make up 36% of Israel's population.
Israel will eventually learn that if something can not go on forever, it will stop.
> "will generate more Hamas recruits?"
I'm sure that Israel is 100% aware of that, having dealt closely with it for decades. It's hardly a new insight in unconventional warfare, and has probably been taught on day one of studying same for a century.
However, the Israeli analysis could be that Hamas already has as many recruits as it can equip anyway, so it's more important to destroy the military and organizational infrastructure which allows Hamas to send rockets and invasions into Israel.
They may be weighing 30,000 actual trained Hamas fighters with a fantastic tunnel system and 15 years of accumulated weaponry, supplies, etc be more dangerous than 90,000 potential recruits who may hate Israel but do not have the infrastructure and tools to attack it.
Israel knows it cannot eliminate every existing member of Hamas, but they seem to hope that they can render Hamas militarily impotent for a decade or more, which is a different proposition (whether they are correct or not in their calculations is frankly beyond my ability to discern).
In all honesty, I don't see much of a long term path for Israel. You suggest with good reason that they are committing long term suicide, but your suggested alternatives may be seen as shorter term suicide and thus no better. If they can survive long enough, perhaps something like a reform movement might break out in the Arab world, and produce new options for further survival; if they commit suicide in the shorter term, there's less to hope for.
To my best assessment (and I do not claim to be an expert, tho I read experts on all sides), neither a one state nor a two state solution will create peace and continued existence for Israel. Other countries taking Palestinians as refugees might work for Israel, but (1) the Palestinians don't want that and (2) the potential host countries have had bad experiences with Palestinians and do not want them.
In the US, Blacks make up about 13% of the population. Inside Israel proper, about 20% of the Israeli citizens are Arabic today, mostly Muslim or Christian Arabs. They vote, they elect members of parliament, and the supreme court justice who ruled against Netanyahu was Arabic.
The residents of Gaza and of the West Bank, by and large, do not want to be Israeli citizens. They might accept temporary citizenship if that was seen as a temporary step towards the elimination of Israel, which it would very possibly be.
If you think that giving everybody in Israel, Gaza and the West Bank equal citizenship would end well, I suggest moving to South Africa for a few years and then let's talk. I too cheered the idealism of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, but in the end it has not produced a society able to cooperate. There is a very poor historical track record from mixing peoples who hate each other, and having them sort it out democratically. If you doubt that, name the 3 best successes from history.
(Let me be very clear - I personally would LOVE, LOVE, LOVE a positive ending from just that one state solution with people willing to use democratic means and accept the outcome, rather than violence; that would please me no end. But that wishful thinking doesn't make it the most likely outcome.)
It appears we agree that Israel is on a long term path with a very bad ending.
I'm arguing a counterfactual: that had Israel worked with and empowered the PA in the West Bank, instead of working non-stop to humiliate it and steal land from its residents, perhaps it would have a rational negotiating partner by now.
But there's no way to know if my counterfactual was accurate. I'm just guessing when I claim/hope that there's still a way out via a two state solution if Israel works with the PA, or a reconstituted PA.
However, such a solution would require Israel to start dismantling its West Bank settlements, and I see absolutely no evidence that Israel is prepared to do that, or anything else to change the status quo today.
Still, I can't help but think that indiscriminately killing 25,000 and counting people, the vast majority of whom must certainly be civilians, is moving Israel and the Palestinians towards a far worse place.