People Want Someone To Blame

There’s too much certainty in the world at the moment. Some people are certain they understand the facts of a case after reading a few headlines. Others are certain they disagree before they’ve even understood the argument. Still others are certain they understand the motivations of strangers based on pure guesswork.

In my article, The Importance Of Being Wrong, I wrote about the importance of leaving room for doubt. Of asking ourselves whether we really know what we think we know. Of bearing in mind that what feels right is often not the same as what is right.

Bo thought the overall point was spot on, but didn’t like the example I chose.

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Bo:

The overall point is spot on, but that doesn't lend any legitimacy to the lab leek hypothesis, which was debunked over and over by actual virologists. Their explanations were highly technical though so everyone's eyes glazed over.

The Hunan wet market was only the first superspreader event. It could have originated elsewhere and been carried there by a traveler.

It took a decade to figure out that SARS originated in bats. Because of the close relationship between SARS and SARS-CoV-2 it seemed like a good place to start.
"Spanish" flu originated in Kansas.

It is also true that the chances of any one individual with few or no risk factors actually getting COVID-19 were always small, so you could "get away with" asserting your individuality and refusing masking and vaccination.

From a public health standpoint it was always true that staggering numbers of people could (at first) then would (when the situation became clearer) die.

But individualism is in the ascendancy to such an extent that we have lost our ability to act as a species.

The carbon footprint bill will soon come due. I fear for us.

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Steve QJ:

The overall point is spot on, but that doesn't lend any legitimacy to the lab leek hypothesis, which was debunked over and over by actual virologists.

But that's just it, it hasn't been debunked at all. It couldn't be. Because China has been almost completely uncooperative in helping to figure out the origins.

The WHO demanded further investigation into the theory just a couple of weeks ago (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/covid-19-urges-investigation-chinese-wuhan-lab-leak-theory-rcna32910).

The idea that the question is settled somehow is completely false.

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Bo:

It's one of those things that keep being flogged because people want someone to blame. We have trouble accepting that it is most likely the result of our increasing incursion into wild spaces. It took more than a decade to find the source of original SARS. MERS was much easier only because it was in camels and that was one of the first places researchers looked.

But people are impatient and so come up with this emotionally satisfying theory then demand that people who doubt it prove a negative. It is rather exhausting.

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Steve QJ:

It's one of those things that keep being flogged because people want someone to blame.

Why are you so comfortable making this assumption?! What evidence do you have for this? And on what evidence are you saying it's "most likely" that it's a result of our incursion into wild spaces? What research have you done? Why do you think you know more about this than the WHO?

Is it possible that you're the one looking for an “emotionally satisfying theory”?

I think it's extremely reasonable to want to know where a virus that killed millions of people, and brought the planet to a standstill for two years, came from. Not to demonise China, but so that we can do everything possible to make sure it doesn't happen again. This is true whether it was zoonotic or accidentally leaked from a lab.

There's nothing emotionally satisfying about the idea that it came from a lab. It doesn't reduce the number of dead people one way or the other. But knowing the truth might well save lives in the future. Your apparent conviction that the only possible reason people want to know is some nefarious blame-game is baffling.

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Bo:

It's been investigated over and over. No one has found evidence. But when people are committed to it they accuse China of stonewalling, which is what China does.

But it reminds me of Kennedy assassination conspiracy theories. No one wants to believe that a random nut case could precipitate such a catastrophic event.

Similarly we are reluctant to believe that the random processes of nature could so royally fuck with us. We'd rather have something we could control, at least in theory.

The planet doesn't give a shit about us. Nature might well be better off without us. Scary thought because it makes us the bugs and not the windshield.

So yeah. It's possible that it could have been a lab leak. But we have seen zoonotic transmission before. So why not do some actual science?

BTW I'm sick of talking about this so if you respond I will not answer no matter what you say. So you get the last word if you care about having it.

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“BTW I'm sick of talking about this so if you respond I will not answer no matter what you say.”

A response like this feels especially poignant in the comments of an article about the importance of leaving room for doubt. Note that Bo hasn’t answered any of my questions, and no evidence of these numerous conclusive investigations has been offered.

Instead, the only attempt at an argument is the fact that this incident somehow reminds Bo of the Kennedy assassination. But what if, and stay with me here, these two events are completely unrelated?

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Steve QJ:

It's been investigated over and over. No one has found evidence.

Again, that's because notoriously secretive and censorious China has refused to cooperate with the investigation. Why do you think the WHO is asking for further investigation? The investigations have satisfied you, but not the WHO. Who do you think is more knowledgeable on the issue?

The “actual science” is the investigation that organisations like the WHO are trying to carry out.

You can believe whatever you like, of course, but I'm not going to pretend it makes any sense. The fact that the planet doesn't give a shit about us, which I agree with, is 100% unrelated to your point. As are the Kennedy assassination conspiracy theories.

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We live in an age where we have access to just enough information to doubt everything, but not quite enough to be sure of anything.

Some people believe that COVID-19 originated in a lab. Some believe its origins are zoonotic. Some believe that the WHO is corrupt or that the truth will never be revealed one way or another. There is no bottom to the layers of suspicion and questioning that are possible.

But if we dismiss any evidence that conflicts with what we already believe (or assume everybody who disagrees with us is evil or stupid), we leave ourselves no defence against our ability to fool ourselves. As Richard Feynman put it:

The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.

Asking, “what makes you think that?,” or, “how do you know?” feels like fighting talk to people who are unjustifiably confident in their opinions. But these are questions we should constantly be asking ourselves.

It’s one thing to understand this in theory, but it’s still not easy to do in practice. Even if you think the overall point is spot on.